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Q.Is conflict with Iraq inevitable?
A.President Bush is absolutely determined
to launch a major attack on Iraq to topple Saddam Hussein. He
will do everything in his power to achieve this aim.
He can be stopped, but only by considerable
domestic and international pressure - and probably only if Britain
deserts his side.
Q.What can people do to prevent it?
A.Get informed so that you can refute
the bogus arguments being put forward by the Government and its
supporters.
Use pressure on MPs, MSPs, on religious
and other leaders, and campaign by extra-parliamentary means to
force Tony Blair to disengage from the war effort and commit himself
to the legal means available - negotiations and inspections -
as a way of resolving the weapons issue.
Pledge to carry out or support nonviolent
direct action in the event of war (see www.banthebomb.org or www.justicenotvengeance.org).
Be confident - 56 per cent of people
in the UK are opposed to war on Iraq, and that proportion is likely
to be even higher in Scotland.
Q.What solution to the Saddam Hussein
question be?
A.The solution to Iraq's weapons
of mass destruction is to re-establish the inspection and monitoring
regime that was destroyed in 1998 when (a) the US ordered UNSCOM
to leave and then bombed Iraq, and (b) the international community
learned how US intelligence had used UNSCOM to spy on the leadership
of Iraq.
However the international community
decides to solve the 'Saddam Hussein question', we have to separate
that from the question of sanctions and the humanitarian crisis
they have created in Iraq. We must lift the economic sanctions
now, unconditionally, to allow Iraq's children a chance to live,
whatever we decide to do in relation to Iraq's leadership. The
children of Iraq cannot be made to pay for policies they have
no control over.
Informed experts warn that the present
leadership of Iraq is not the most angry or dangerous element
of Iraqi politics - simply killing Saddam Hussein could just bring
a more aggressive and hostile faction into power.
Q.Why should the British/Scottish
public be sceptical about Blair and Bush's "incontrovertable evidence
of weapons of mass destruction"?
Because no hard evidence has been
produced. Evidence from defectors is limited and in some cases
suspect.
David Albright, a former nuclear
inspector in Iraq has lost faith in one Iraqi defector he previously
sponsored: ‘If Hamza has become a monster, I partly blame myself.
He had good information on what he knew about, but where we fell
out was that I was concerned he was telling me stuff he had read
elsewhere, including stuff he could have read in Time magazine.’
(Observer, 17 March 2002)
Q.Even if Saddam Hussein did possess
such weapons, would it be an excuse for attacking Iraq?
A.There is no legal basis for attacking
a country because it has weapons - whatever kind of weapons they
may be. The UN Charter only allows you to use force in self-defence
against an armed attack across international borders.
It may be possible to justify a pre-emptive
military attack but only if the evidence is cast-iron that the
enemy is preparing to attack you or your ally. In this case, the
evidence is not only not cast-iron, it is non- existent.
The only circumstance in which Iraq
is likely to use whatever weapons of mass destruction it may possess
is precisely in response to a US attack.
The way to solve the weapons issue
is to use the monitoring system of hundreds of cameras and inspections
developed over seven years by UNSCOM to ensure that Iraq cannot
develop these weapons. According to Scott Ritter, former chief
weapons inspector for UNSCOM, as long as the monitoring programme
is in place, Iraq is effectively disarmed.
Q.Do you think the 'leaks' from US
sources about possible attack plans against Iraq are genuine or
part of the propoganda war?
A.The leaks are almost all genuine,
but they represent different factions within the Administration,
and the plans have not yet been amalgamated into a single agreed
strategy. Incidentally, President Bush originally ordered this
to happen by 15 April.
Many of the leaks are also part of
a propaganda war designed to bring about a coup in Baghdad by
convincing the Iraqi military leadership that they are about to
suffer tremendous destruction and defeat if they do not dispose
of Saddam Hussein and his inner circle.
Q.What scenario is most likely in
your eyes, and what would the results be?
A.The course of events is completely
unpredictable, and depends greatly on the strategy the US adopts.
The worst case scenario would see
(a) massive damage to the civilian
infrastructure in Iraq once again, with the concomitant post-war
deaths as a result of deteriorating water supplies, lack of power
for hospitals, and so on;
(b) a number of different civil wars
inside Iraq;
(c) Turkish and possibly other intervention
into and occupation of Iraqi territory, increasing regional tension
and the risk of further wars at some point;
(d) a surprise massive defeat for
US forces with a very large US death toll leading to the use of
nuclear weapons;
(e) the use of Iraqi weapons of mass
destruction against Israel, triggering nuclear retaliation and
a wider Arab-Israeli war.
On the basis of the information available,
and UNSCOM reports, it seems almost impossible for Iraq to retain
or to have developed a functioning chemical or biological weapon.
It is flatly impossible for Iraq to have a nuclear bomb.
Q.What are the benefits to US corporations
(Bush donors) of continued regional instability?
A.There is no benefit to US corporations
in regional instability.
The idea of going to war is based
on the assumption that regional instability can be crushed and
contained at an acceptable level by US clients in the area.
War on Iraq is designed in part to
reinforce the aura of US domination and mastery of violence -
'credibility', in technical terms - which is supposed to reduce
instability and increase US power and domination of the region's
resources.
Q.What are the real reasons that
Bush and Blair want to attack Iraq? Is there an aspect of 'family
revenge' for Bush, and for Blair is it because he seems to be
losing some ground in the popularity stakes and the unions are
being bolshy?
A.Family revenge can be ruled out,
in my view. Mr Blair knows this is an unpopular war - 56 per cent
of British people oppose the war according to an April MORI poll
in Time magazine - so that cannot be the reason.
The US is committed to regaining
control of Iraq's oil resources, and different factions within
the US political mainstream have different strategies for achieving
that. Currently the 'Prussians' are in charge, and they are using
the 11 September effect to press for massive military intervention
that would have been desirable (to them) but unachievable in the
last twenty years.
When President Reagan tried to mobilise
the US for the invasion of El Salvador in 1981, he had to back
off because of a large-scale, leaderless, spontaneous but highly
committed popular opposition movement. That was called the Vietnam
Syndrome (resisting war and aggression is a disease).
The hope among the Prussians is that
this 'sickly inhibition' has now evaporated. The 'axis of evil'
speech was entirely serious. There is a stream of candidates for
annihilation, and President Bush means to destroy them all, one
by one.
The Prime Minister is caught in the
traditional postwar British dilemma that Britain can only have
Great Power status by attaching itself firmly either to the US
or to some European bloc. For various reasons, Britain has always
opted for Washington. The US and Britain are overdeveloped militarily
and underdeveloped in terms of political strength. They will always
seek to move international crises to the realm of violence where
they can demonstrate their domination.
Q.In America it seems there will
be some semblance of 'public consultation' and congress debate
over attacking Iraq - while in Britain the government has said
there'll be no Commons debate; why do you think this is?
A.It's a more democratic system.
Q.Is there anything you want to add?
A.I've just finished a 240 page book
called _War Plan Iraq: Ten Reasons Why We Shouldn't Launch Another
War Against Iraq_ It's due to come out mid-September and it will
cost £12 in the shops, £10 direct from 'ARROW Publications', 29
Gensing Road, St Leonards-on-Sea, East Sussex, TN38 0HE. Orders
received before 11 September will be sent post-free in the UK.
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